American politics after health reform
医疗改革后的美国政治Now what?应该何去何从？
Barack Obama needs to use a bruising victory to unleash the promise of his pr esidency
奥巴马应该即便是伤痕累累也要兑现自己总统的承诺
Mar 25th 2010 | From The Economist print edition
源自《经济学人》印刷版 2010年3月25日
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LAST November Henry Kissinger compared Barack Obama to a chess grandmaster who had played his opening in six simultaneous matches, but hadn’t completed a single game. Now the president has won the first of those matches with an audacious checkmate snatched from a seemingly hopeless position. But the rest of the chessboards are still gridlocked.
亨利基辛格将奥巴马比作一个从去年11月开始同时进行六局象棋比赛的国际象棋大师，但目前还没有完成一局比赛。而现在他勇敢的在不利形势中逆转局势，赢得了第一场比赛。然而其余五局将仍会处于僵持局面。
The health-care victory this week was a huge achievement for Mr Obama (see article). After the Democrats in January suddenly lost their filibuster-proof majority in the Senate many, reputedly including his own chief of staff, urged him to play for a draw and settle for a much more modest bill than the 2,400-page behemoth that he signed into law on March 23rd. Instead, the president buckled down: he dumped the (more expensive) House version of the bill, concentrated on the Senate version and criss-crossed the country, making powerful speeches and twisting arms. In short, he took charge, and started doing all the things he ought to have been doing a lot earlier.
对奥巴马来说，在本周的医疗保险改革的成功是一个巨大的成就（见文章）。在在明主党人一月份突然失去在参议院阻挠议案通过的多数权力之后，据说包括奥巴马政府的主要领导人督促他起草并设立比他在3月23日签署的2400页的庞然大物更为合适的法案。相反，总统沉着应对：他废除了众议院作为在全国宣传并扭曲参议院的武器的法案。总之，他开始行动并做所有的他早该就做的事情。
His reward, however, is merely the right to continue playing. Had health reform failed after Mr Obama had invested so much of his personal authority in it, his presidency would have been crippled; and a president who is weak at home tends to be perceived as weak abroad as well. Success thus gives Mr Obama a chance to get his presidency back on track, but hardly guarantees it. That depends on him learning from his mistakes and not exaggerating the extent of his success.
然而，他的成果仅仅是获得继续进行下一步工作的权利。假如医疗改革在奥巴马投入如此多的个人精力之后失败了，他的总统生涯将是有瑕疵的，而且一个领导人在内政上的软弱一样会导致在外交上的软弱。成功只是给了奥巴马一个步入他总统正轨的机会，但是要正真步入是很难的。这就需要他从错误中学习而不是夸大他的成功。
A polarising moment
偏振时代
Health care itself is a good example. Universal health coverage has been a goal of Democrats for decades, so Mr Obama’s achieving something pretty near to it has perked up morale in his own party. But he has done a rotten job of selling it to everybody else. Most polls show more Americans oppose Obamacare than approve of it, though that may be changing a little. The signs still point towards his party being kicked hard in the mid-term elections; and the Republicans, not one of whom voted for the bill, say that they will repeal it if they can.
医疗保险本身就是一个很好的例子。全民医疗保险几十年来一直是民主党人的目标，所以奥巴马的使目标更近了一步的举动竖起了他自己政党的士气。但是他们却做着要让其他所有人接受这项决议的倒霉工作。多数民调显示大多数美国人是反对Obamacare而不是支持，尽管这个局面将会有所改变。这迹象表明他们政党是很难通过中期选举的；而且共和党人，没有一人投票支持这项法案，声称如果可能的话，他们将废除它。
Conservative anger was predictable—and may well backfire. But this is a much worse bill than it might have been. This newspaper supported the final version of Obamacare, but only because we have long maintained that a country as rich as America should provide decent health coverage to all its citizens. Because the bill does almost nothing to control costs, it was a huge missed opportunity. American business, which anyhow feels unloved by this White House, will suffer the consequences (see article).
保守派的愤怒是可以预见的，也许会产生适得其反。对他们来说这是一个比他自身更糟糕的法案。他们声称支持Obamacare的最终决议，但是仅仅是因为我们相信像美国这样富裕的国家应该给所有的市民提供丰富的健康保险。由于这项法案几乎没有控制成本，因此失去了一个大好的机会。美国的商业将会蒙受损失，这是白宫政府无论如何也不想看到的。
That is why Mr Obama now needs to produce a credible plan to tackle America’s vast budget deficit. The national public debt is predicted almost to double in the next decade. Beefing up the woefully weak cost-control mechanisms in the health bill will help (and might impress independent voters). But in the end, bringing America’s budget under control requires radical reform to all entitlements. Sadly Mr Obama has repeatedly failed to sketch out how he might go about that.
这就是为什么奥巴马现在需要制定一个可靠的方案来解决美国巨大的预算赤字。国家的公共债务预计在未来10年几乎增加一倍。加强在薄弱环节成本的控制机制对医疗条例法案是有益的（并有可能对独立选民留下深刻的印象）。但到最后，要使预算在控制之内需要对所有权利进行彻底的改革。可悲的是奥巴马多次未能指出他可能的对策。
In theory, budget-cutting offers more room than health care did to lure in those obstructive Republicans: fiscal responsibility is supposedly dear to the hearts of the political right. The hitch is that they show few signs of wanting to help out. They have the excuse that Mr Obama initially did far too little to woo moderate Republicans on health care, handing the project over to leftish Democrats in Congress. But conservatives can claim Obama is hellbent on increasing the power of the government over the economy. By passing a huge stimulus package and then “socialising” an industry that accounts for one-sixth of GDP, Mr Obama, they say, has dragged America further leftward than any president since FDR.
从理论上讲，预算削减对故意刁难的共和党人来说比医疗保险更有吸引力，因为财政的可靠性是政治权利的最核心部分。意外的是他们几乎没有表现出要对此帮助的意思。他们借口奥巴马在开始几乎没有做什么吸引中间派的共和党人支持医疗保险，而是把项目提交给国会左派民主党人。另一方面保守派声称奥巴马在加强政府在经济中的作用是坚决的。通过一揽子的经济刺激计划和将占GDP贡献六分之一的产业国有化，他们说，奥巴马使美国走入罗斯福总统以来最大的左派化。
That is unfair. Stimulus was needed. And if the tea-party crowd examined the free-market paradise they think existed before Mr Obama signed the bill, they would find that their government already spent more per citizen on health than most OECD countries do. But, as with the appearance of being anti-business, Mr Obama needs to squash his apparent addiction to big government quickly. There would be no better way than spelling out where he is going to take a hatchet to government spending; but he may also have to revise other costly schemes. His proposed climate-change bill, whose chances of becoming law before the mid-terms look slim, would be much improved if boondoggles were removed from it. Another apparently lost cause, immigration reform, is unpopular with conservatives, but is supported by many businesspeople. The re-regulation of Wall Street is harder for the Republicans to oppose. But in each case the president needs to show more determination and leadership than he h as thus far.
这是不公平的。经济刺激是必要的。而且如果这些茶党人早奥巴马签署医疗法案之发现了自由市场存在的必要性，他们会发现他们的政府在公民医疗上的投入是大于大多数经合组织国家的。然而，就非商业的现象来说，奥巴马需要将精力放在各大党派上。除了公布他预计政府的开支的主要投入那儿，没有更好的办法，但是这意味着必需修改其他的重要计划。即使取消了同行的评审，他所推荐的气候变化法案（在中期选举时是无望通过的）将任会得到改善。另外显然要取消的就是保守派反对的而商人们支持的移民改革。对他们来说反对华尔街的管理革新是很困难的。但是在每一件事上总统都要表现出前所未有的决心和领导力。
Abroad, too, there are chess games in need of bolder gambits. As with health care last year, there has been a lot of verbiage and not much steel. In foreign capitals Mr Obama was starting to be seen as a feeble, perhaps even a one-term, president. China humiliated him by sending a junior minister to lecture him at Copenhagen. Russia’s prime minister, Vladimir Putin, recently treated Hillary Clinton to a show of indifference. Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu has spent much of the past month cocking a snook at the White House. Now Mr Obama looks mo re like a winner, he should act like one.
在国外，同样也有这样大胆的象棋游戏。就去年以来医疗改革来说，有许多的说法但并没有一个定论。在其他国家眼里，奥巴马是一个缺乏竞争力且只能任一届的总统。在哥本哈根，中国只派遣一位副部长与他会谈，这是对他的羞辱。最近俄罗斯总理弗拉基米尔普京对待希拉里克林顿一副无所谓的样子。以色列内塔尼亚胡政府在过去的几个月里探视着白宫。现在奥巴马看起来更像一个胜利者，他应该做名副其实。
Second life
性格的两面性
It is three months since a deadline for Iran to resolve its nuclear proliferation issues expired; where are the tougher sanctions Mr Obama threatened? If health care showed the virtues of a president getting involved, then so too can the Middle East peace process. A start seemed to be made this week (see article) but it needs to be followed through. A stronger president would make much clearer to the Chinese that he will not give in to Sinophobic protectionist pressures from Congress, but he won’t take instructions about talking to the Dalai Lama either.
距伊朗解决其核泄漏问题还有三个月；在那里奥巴马实行眼里的制裁威胁。如果医疗保险是总统美德的体现，哪么对中东地区的和平政策也是其体现。这周似乎是一个开始（见文章）但仍需继续进行。越强的主席更加明确对中国的政策，称不会屈服于来自国会Sinophobic保护主义压力，并且也不会对会见达赖喇嘛作出解释。
Second chances are rare in politics. Mr Obama now has one. Does he want to be remembered as a president who eventually drove through health care but achieved little else? Or will this week mark a turning-point where this enigmatic man became a much more determined, effective president?
二次机会在政治上是罕见的。奥巴马现在有一个。他是想做一个被认为是取得医疗保险的成功而其他一无所成，或者是这周将是这个神秘男人变成坚定的、有生命力的总统的转折点。 | iddle East peace process. A start seemed to be made this week (see article) but it needs to be followed through. A stronger president would make much clearer to the Chinese that he will not give in to Sinophobic protectionist pressures from Congress, but he won’t take instructions about talking to the Dalai Lama either.
距伊朗解决其核泄漏问题还有三个月；在那里奥巴马实行眼里的制裁威胁。如果医疗保险是总统美德的体现，哪么对中东地区的和平政策也是其体现。这周似乎是一个开始（见文章）但仍需继续进行。越强的主席更加明确对中国的政策，称不会屈服于来自国会Sinophobic保护主义压力，并且也不会对会见达赖喇嘛作出解释。
Second chances are rare in politics. Mr Obama now has one. Does he want to be remembered as a president who eventually drove through health care but achieved little else? Or will this week mark a turning-point where this enigmatic man became a much more determined, effective president?
二次机会在政治上是罕见的。奥巴马现在有一个。他是想做一个被认为是取得医疗保险的成功而其他一无所成，或者是这周将是这个神秘男人变成坚定的、有生命力的总统的转折点。 |
