摘要: 对病床安排确定合理的评价指标体系,从医院和患者两个角度来考虑.医院方面以病床周转次数为指标，患者角度以其满意度来评价病床安排模型的优劣.利用递归算法和0-1动态规划，建立床位需求矩阵和患者得病种类矩阵，对病床的安排进行了优化.用时间序列模型中指数预测模型对入院时间进行了预测拟合，确立了患者的大致入院时间区间.

关键字 木桶效应  递归算法  0-1规划  时间序列模型 

  Relative to the reasonable arrangement of hospital beds, we first work out an index evaluating system, and judge the superior of hospital beds arrangement from two sides of hospital and patients .From the side of hospital, the index is the circulating times to hospital beds, and from the side of patients the index is the degree of their satisfaction. By using recursive algorithm and 0-1 dynamic programming ,we establish the matrix of hospital beds needs and the matrix of illness varieties ,and optimize the arrangement model of hospital beds .Then we fit and predict the time for hospitalization by using index predict model in time series model and set up the general interval of time for hospitalization.

   Barrel effect Recursive algorithm 0-1dynamic programming Time series model