背景常识介绍：

很多迹象表明，一旦美联储声明显示出其紧缩周期已经正式结束，而且可能开始降息，美元有可能大幅下挫;即使声明内容保持不变，美元仍有可能走软，这主要是因为美联储的立场将与其他经济体，如央行特别是欧洲央行，持有的强硬立场有所不同。

Federal reserve:Difference of opinion

美联储：不同的观点

THE outcome was never in doubt. On December 12th America’s central bank kept shortterm interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. What mattered was the statement accompanying the Federal Reserve’s decision. Although Ben Bernanke and his colleagues gave a nod to the slowing economy (noting that the cooling of the housing market had been “substantial” and that recent economic indicators had been “mixed”), they repeated that they still considered inflation a bigger worry than weak growth.

这个结果从未令人怀疑。在12月12号美国中央银行保持短期存款利率为5.52%不变。重要的是伴随着美联储的决定出现的评论。虽然BB和他的同事们承认经济增长变慢（注意到房地产市场降温时“显著”的，最近的经济指数是“喜忧参半’）.他们反复说他们认为通货膨胀比起每周增长率将会是一个更大的担忧。

That is not what Wall Street has been thinking. According to the latest Blue Chip monthly survey, four out of five financial forecasters reckon the central bank’s next move will be to cut the federal funds rate. Some onceoptimistic seers have been busy cutting their growth forecasts. The price of fed-funds futures suggests that financial markets see a 20% chance of lower interest rates by April. This had been close to 70%, but unexpectedly strong growth in jobs and then retail sales in November has caused some in the markets to think a rate cut less likely. The central bankers are simultaneously more cautious and more optimistic than many on Wall Street. With core inflation still well above the 1-2% rate they unofficially deem appropriate, Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues are genuinely worried about price pressure. Although fuel costs have fallen sharply, core consumer prices, which exclude the volatile categories of food and energy, still rose by 2.8% in the year to October. (November’s figures will be released on December 15th.) The Fed’s preferred price gauge, the core personal-consumption deflator, went up by 2.4% in the year to October, only a little short of the fastest pace for a decade. With inflation still too high, cautious central bankers see scant reason for abandoning their hawkish rhetoric.

这不是华尔街所考虑的。根据最近的蓝筹股每月报道，4/5的经济预测家估计中央银行的下一步举动是降低联邦基金利率。一些曾经乐观的观察者现在忙于减少他们的增长预期。联邦基金价格的未来预示了4月降息的可能性是20%。这个可能性也有可能接近70%，但是工作市场和零售业11月没有预料到的增长，使一些人认为降低利率的可能性没有那么大。同时中央银行比华尔街更谨慎也更乐观。核心膨胀仍然远远高于他们非官方默认的1%~2%，B先生和他的同事们真正开始担心价格压力。虽然石油价格下降的很厉害，核心消费价格——不包括变动较大的食品和能源仍然在十月前增长了2.8%，仅仅比十年来最快增长慢一点点。通货膨胀的持续增高让谨慎的中央银行更没什么理由放弃他们的强硬言论。

By the same token, the officials are less concerned by the risk of a slowdown than their counterparts on Wall Street are. Not only do the central bankers expect the economy to grow below its trend rate in the short term; they want it to. That is because a period of belowtrend growth will help dampen inflationary pressure by increasing the amount of slack in the economy. Fed officials worry that labour markets, in particular, are too tight. In their July forecast the central bankers expected an average unemployment rate of between 4.75% and 5% for the fourth quarter of 2006 and 2007, well above today’s 4.5%. Modestly higher joblessness would be welcome. That unemployment has not risen suggests the economy has not slowed much below its trend rate of growth.

同样，政府没有华尔街人士那么担心经济减慢的风险。中央银行不只是期望经济增长在短期内低于趋势水平，他们需要如此。这是因为一段时期的低于趋势水平的经济增长将使经济更加松弛，有助于缓解通货膨胀的压力。美联储官员特别担心劳动力市场将过于紧张。在他们七月的预测中中央银行预计平均失业率将会在4.75%到5%之间，明显高于现在的4.5%。适当高的失业率是有好处的。失业率没有上升显示经济并没有明显低于它的趋势水平。

If prudence is telling the central bankers to stand pat, so is their optimism. The Fed is not among those who believe that America’s unexpectedly deep housing bust will drag the rest of the economy down. In a recent speech Mr Bernanke made it clear that he saw little sign of the housing recession spreading elsewhere. A stream of weak statistics in subsequent days, particularly a report hinting that manufacturing was in recession, suggested that his optimism might be misplaced.

如果是对通货膨胀的警惕让美联储作出强硬的态度，那他们的乐观大概也是这个原因。美联储并不认为美国房地产行业的意外破产会拖累整个经济体。B申明它没有看到房地产衰退蔓延的任何迹象。随后的一系列糟糕的数据，特别是暗示制造业在衰退的报道，都说明他的乐观放错了地方。